Assumptions about public health context for business planning All applicants should provide plans for October 2020 – March 2021 based on the same central assumptions on social distancing and the public health context for England.

Applicants should put forward a value for money plan to operate assuming public health guidelines at 10 August 2020 continue.

In particular, organisations should assume that settings remain open as currently permitted, in line with the performing arts guidance, the museums, heritage and galleries guidance, and other relevant guidance [including that indoor and performances can resume if social distancing is maintained] and also assume that social distancing continues at 2m/1m+.

Organisations will need to consider how their plans can be as flexible and resilient to any further changes as far as this is possible.

1. Social distancing measures, including the need to maintain distance at 2m or 1m+ plus mitigations and particular considerations for higher risk groups. We expect this will continue to constrain demand for many organisations, both in terms of venue capacity but also consumer demand. Consumer demand is likely to continue below standard levels for the time being, while gradually picking up if the health situation allows and consumer confidence returns. However, this may vary across demographics, given the different levels of risk that the virus presents for them. Organisations will want to consider how their typical customer base is likely to respond to continued social distancing measures.
2. International travel restrictions - current advice is that all but essential international travel should be avoided. This means that organisations that rely more heavily on international tourists for their customer base might be more significantly affected. Organisations will want to consider how ongoing travel restrictions both from and into the UK will impact their ability to tour and receive international customers and shows.
3. The Contain Framework, which sets out how national and local partners will work with the public at a local level to prevent, contain and manage outbreaks. This includes measures to close specific sectors or areas, restrict movement of people and gatherings.
4. The performing arts guidance, museums and galleries guidance, heritage guidance and cinema guidance, and other relevant guidance, for particular organisations, sets out how organisations should undertake activity in a Covid-secure way. Organisations should ensure that any activity in their plan adheres to this, and other relevant guidance.

The path of the virus is uncertain and it is therefore impossible to predict between now and March.

The above is not a prediction or a vision for how the context will play out in the remainder of the financial year.

As set out in more detail in the government’s roadmap for recovery any further steps to continue to open up the economy will be dependent on the state of the epidemic at the time and the trajectory of cases being stable or remaining in decline.

Similarly it will be necessary that local outbreaks are identified quickly and quashed and a resurgence in the virus may require tighter restrictions. It is in that context that we ask organisations to prepare plans setting out the most value for money plans within current guidelines, whilst accepting that the exact path may vary